Weather: Model-Driven Markets with Public Data
Markets analysed
1
Avg lead changes
1.0
per market
Avg probability swing
50%
winner min to loser max
One-sided markets
0%
never changed leader
Weather markets cover hurricane paths, temperature records, and extreme weather events. These are unusual prediction markets because the underlying data (meteorological models) is publicly available and highly predictive: the NHC forecast, GFS and ECMWF model runs, and National Weather Service data are all free and updated multiple times daily.
The result is a market where the information advantage belongs to whoever processes model updates fastest. Prices in weather markets tend to lag NHC forecast updates by 15-30 minutes, which creates a systematic window for traders who monitor the models directly.
Lead Change Distribution
How many times did the market leader flip during the market's lifetime? Zero means one side dominated from open to close. Higher numbers mean contested, back-and-forth outcomes: the kind that create the most trading opportunity.
Number of lead changes per market
Probability Range by Market
Each bar is one resolved market. The coloured zone spans from the winner's lowest point (left edge) to the loser's peak (white marker) — this is where a reversal was possible. The dim green tail extends from the loser's peak to 100%, where the winner eventually resolved. A wide red zone means the market was nearly overturned.
When Did Reversals Happen?
Each dot is a market that had at least one lead change. The x-axis shows when the last reversal happened as a percentage of the market's total lifetime. Points in the shaded red zone (75-100%) reversed in the final quarter, the highest-risk window for certainty sellers.
Weather markets are one of the few Polymarket categories where publicly available models directly predict the resolution outcome. The edge lies in being faster to update your position as model runs refresh than the rest of the market is. Setting up alerts for new NHC advisories and ECMWF runs, then trading before Polymarket prices adjust, is a repeatable strategy in this category.
Where Smart Money Enters
Every $10,000+ trade on a Weather market plotted by two dimensions: what probability was the market at when the trade happened (x-axis), and how far through the market's lifetime it was placed (y-axis). Brighter cells mean more large-capital entries at that combination. A cluster at low probability early suggests informed contrarian positioning. A cluster at high probability late suggests momentum-following by large accounts.
No whale trades recorded yet. Data will populate as the scanner runs.
Most Dramatic Resolved Markets
Ranked by probability swing (the gap between the winner's lowest point and the loser's highest point). These are the markets where the eventual winner was most seriously challenged.
| Market | Lead changes | Winner low | Loser peak | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on September 16? | 1 | 50% | 50% | 0pp |
Act on these patterns in real time
Polyshadow signals fire when smart money bets match the patterns described above: late-money whale positions, new-account bets, and convergence across unconnected wallets.
View plans →