Geopolitics: Information-Sensitive, News-Driven
Markets analysed
5
Avg lead changes
3.0
per market
Avg probability swing
12%
winner min to loser max
One-sided markets
80%
never changed leader
Geopolitical markets cover international conflicts, diplomatic events, sanctions, territorial changes, and election outcomes in foreign countries. These markets often have low baseline volume but move sharply on breaking news, with large bid/ask spreads that widen further around major events.
Resolution criteria in geopolitical markets are frequently ambiguous, which creates systematic mispricing. A market asking "will X country invade Y by date Z" requires careful reading of what counts as an invasion under the resolution rules.
Lead Change Distribution
How many times did the market leader flip during the market's lifetime? Zero means one side dominated from open to close. Higher numbers mean contested, back-and-forth outcomes: the kind that create the most trading opportunity.
Number of lead changes per market
Probability Range by Market
Each bar is one resolved market. The coloured zone spans from the winner's lowest point (left edge) to the loser's peak (white marker) — this is where a reversal was possible. The dim green tail extends from the loser's peak to 100%, where the winner eventually resolved. A wide red zone means the market was nearly overturned.
When Did Reversals Happen?
Each dot is a market that had at least one lead change. The x-axis shows when the last reversal happened as a percentage of the market's total lifetime. Points in the shaded red zone (75-100%) reversed in the final quarter, the highest-risk window for certainty sellers.
Geopolitical markets reward close reading of resolution criteria over news reaction speed. The most consistent edge is finding markets where one side benefits from a narrow or literal interpretation of the resolution criteria that differs from the colloquial interpretation the market is pricing. Buying the technically-correct side before the market notices is a repeatable pattern in this category.
Calibration Curve
When a Geopolitics market prices the favourite at 80%, does it actually win 80% of the time? Points below the dashed diagonal mean the market is overconfident. Each coloured line shows calibration at a different stage of the market's lifetime; systematic deviation is where the edge lives.
Upset Probability Matrix
If the favourite is at X% at this stage of the market, how often does the underdog still win? Red cells are where the market is systematically overconfident. The Late (80%) row is the most actionable: this is where traders decide whether to fade certainty or follow momentum.
| When evaluated | 50–60% | 60–70% | 70–80% | 80–90% | 90–100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early (10%) | — | 100% upset 1 markets | 0% upset 1 markets | — | 0% upset 3 markets |
| Midpoint (50%) | — | 50% upset 2 markets | — | — | 0% upset 3 markets |
| Late (80%) | — | — | 0% upset 2 markets | — | 0% upset 3 markets |
Where Smart Money Enters
Every $10,000+ trade on a Geopolitics market plotted by two dimensions: what probability was the market at when the trade happened (x-axis), and how far through the market's lifetime it was placed (y-axis). Brighter cells mean more large-capital entries at that combination. A cluster at low probability early suggests informed contrarian positioning. A cluster at high probability late suggests momentum-following by large accounts.
Most Dramatic Resolved Markets
Ranked by probability swing (the gap between the winner's lowest point and the loser's highest point). These are the markets where the eventual winner was most seriously challenged.
| Market | Lead changes | Winner low | Loser peak | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? | 15 | 30% | 70% | 40pp |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | 0 | 66% | 34% | -32pp |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | 0 | 90% | 11% | -79pp |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | 0 | 100% | 0% | -100pp |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | 0 | 100% | 0% | -100pp |
Act on these patterns in real time
Polyshadow signals fire when smart money bets match the patterns described above: late-money whale positions, new-account bets, and convergence across unconnected wallets.
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